The Philippine Online Chronicles

Apparent President-elect Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III’s successful bid for the presidency was built on a strong anti-Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo advocacy. Some view his victory as a resounding rejection of the unpopular, corruption-ridden, oppressive, and widely despised Arroyo administration. Having made the strongest and boldest campaign pitch to prosecute Mrs. Arroyo and her relatives and allies for their crimes against the Filipino people, Aquino gained the trust of at least 40 percent of those who voted last May 10, based on the partial and unofficial tallies of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) and poll watchdog Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV).

Major battles

However, major battles await Aquino and he must clinch early victories now if he is to seriously and successfully pursue the prosecution of Mrs. Arroyo. One major battle is the midnight appointment of Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona. Despite strong public opinion, Arroyo went ahead with her official appointment of Corona, a move widely seen as a form of leverage for the future ex-President in case legal complaints against her abuses reach the country’s highest court. Aquino has questioned Corona’s appointment, calling it inappropriate and asked Mrs. Arroyo to reconsider her decision.

Another major and closely watched arena is control of Congress, specifically the House of Representatives where a showdown for the coveted Speakership looms between Aquino’s Liberal Party (LP) and erstwhile ruling party Lakas-Kampi-CMD of Arroyo. However, in a more recent development, the Nacionalista Party (NP) of losing presidential bet Senator Manuel “Manny” Villar is also reportedly fielding its own bet, making the battle for House Speakership a three-cornered fight. The LP is seen to field returning congressman Quezon City Rep. Feliciano Belmonte while  Cavite Rep. Jesus Crispin Remulla, who heads NP at the House, also confirmed he will vie for the lower chamber’s leadership.

Arroyo, for her part, has yet to officially declare her bid for the Speakership. However, in a move obviously meant to consolidate her political party in the run-up to the opening of Congress in July, she called a caucus of Lakas-Kampi-CMD members two days after the elections. In that meeting held in Malacañang, the Chief Executive retook the party chairmanship from current House Deputy Speaker Amelita Villarosa via an unanimous consensus of its members.

Anti-Noynoy Congress

Many political analysts consider the fight for speakership as a key battle that could not only significantly shape the dynamics between Malacañang and Congress in the immediate term. More importantly, the results of the showdown for the House Speakership can also set the tone in the continuing efforts to thwart the attempts of Arroyo and her camp to stay in power through Charter change (Cha-cha) and make them accountable at last for their many wrongdoings in nine years that they held power.

A number of observers already noted that the 15^th Congress would likely be an opposition stronghold, with both the Senate President and Speaker of the House of Representatives coming from outside the LP. Reelected Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, for instance, said in a news report that Villar is confident to get back his post as Senate president, and President-turned-Pampanga Rep. Arroyo will possibly become House Speaker. Santiago, a veteran legislator, warned Aquino that Villar had the “numbers” to reclaim the Senate presidency, while Arroyo, being a “shrewd leader”, may be able to bag the House leadership.

Pundits peg the Villar bloc at the Senate at 10 members at the minimum. The NP itself has only three members in Villar, reelected Pilar Juliana “Pia” Cayetano and his brother Alan Peter Cayetano. But Santiago (founder of the People’s Reform Party or PRP) and first-time senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos of Kilusang Bagong Lipunan also ran as NP guest candidates.

Meanwhile, the so-called “Magnificent 5” bloc composed of Senators Loren Legarda (Nationalist People’s Coalition or NPC), Edgardo Angara (Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino or LDP), and Lakas-Kampi-CMD’s Juan Miguel Zubiri, Manuel “Lito” Lapid, and Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr. is seen as supportive of Villar. Legarda, of course, is Villar’s running mate in his failed bid for the presidency while Senate race topnotcher Revilla is also included as a guest candidate in the senatorial slate of the NP.

Other perceived Villar supporters in the Senate are independent Gregorio “Gringo” Honasan and Joker Arroyo of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD, who was with Villar in the now defunct Wednesday Club group in the Senate. There are only 23 Senators in the 15^th Congress and thus, Villar needs just 13 votes to get the required majority and become Senate President again.

Numbers game

While Villar, for all intents and purposes, is a shoo-in for the Senate presidency in case he actively seeks for the post, the situation at the legislative’s lower chamber is much more complicated and the stakes are much higher. The common perception is that Arroyo, proclaimed as congresswoman-elect of Pampanga’s second district, would want to become Speaker of the House en route to a planned shift from presidential to a parliamentary form of government with her as Prime Minister through the ever controversial Cha-cha. At the minimum, the leadership of the House is also an effective political leverage for the outgoing president against Aquino’s supposed plan to use the enormous power of the Executive to probe and make her accountable.

Unlike in the Senate, no single candidate has a firm control of the majority at the House of Representatives.  With 280 members, the magic number is pegged at 141 (50 percent plus one) in a one-on-one fight and whoever can muster that figure will become House Speaker. But in a three-way battle, the next Speaker will only need a plurality of votes, i.e. the congressman with the highest votes from his or her peers win.

In a three-way fight, Mrs. Arroyo will have the advantage. With at least 107 out of its 169 congressional candidates winning in the last elections, Lakas-Kampi-CMD is clearly the most dominant political party and can easily bag the Speakership.  The LP has only 50 seats in the House while NP has 29 members. The NPC, on the other hand, reportedly has 38 members. Partylist groups and smaller traditional political parties and independent congressmen make up the rest of the House’s membership.

The number of partylist representatives, the Commission on Election (Comelec) said is yet to be determined, and will depend on the number of vacancies in the lower chamber. However, some groups like the poll watchdog Kontra Daya, which has been closely monitoring what it calls bogus partylist groups and questionable nominees claim that nearly half of available partylist seats in the 15^th Congress will likely go to allies or groups associated with Arroyo.

Changing loyalties

But Arroyo, despite Lakas-Kampi-CMD’s dominant numbers today should not expect to get the Speakership on a silver platter, cautioned former President Fidel V. Ramos. “There is definitely going to be a contest for the speakership. She is not going to get it on a silver platter, as she probably assumes”, Ramos was quoted as saying.

For one, it remains to be seen if the Lakas-Kampi-CMD can hold its ground and keep hold of its members before the June 30 opening of the new Congress. Some say it is a phenomenon caused by a “strong presidential system” while common public perception brands it as sheer political opportunism, but congressmen tend to gravitate to the party or coalition of the incumbent President.

One obvious and material reason is the presidential power to allocate pork barrel funds to members of Congress. Ironically, it was Mrs. Arroyo who transferred back such power to Malacañang from the Speaker in one of her schemes to emasculate the House and keep it under her control. LP leaders thus expect Lakas-Kampi-CMD members to abandon  Arroyo in favor of Belmonte, or whoever Aquino officially anoints as LP bet for Speaker. Florencio “Butch” Abad, Aquino’s campaign manager, claimed that at least 30 congressmen from Mrs. Arroyo’s camp will defect to the LP soon. Interestingly, some Lakas-Kampi-CMD members, such as the congressmen from the so-called One Cebu bloc, remain mum on whether they will support the Speakership bid of Arroyo

Another factor is that Arroyo’s potential foes for the Speakership are as politically astute as her and with equally wide networks. Belmonte, for example, is a veteran politician who served as House Speaker in the 11^th Congress before becoming Quezon City mayor for three-terms, and has his own network of old friends and allies even inside the Lakas-Kampi-CMD.  This is perhaps the reason why some of those inside the LP camp who are pushing for reelected and more senior party member Rep. Erin Tañada (4^th district, Quezon Province) to run as Speaker could not openly and strongly question the campaign of Belmonte, who is a just new LP recruit.

What could hurt Belmonte’s chances, however, is if Remulla and the NP will seriously try to secure the lower chamber’s top post as “a double-barreled approach to making NP the minority party in the House if it should not clinch the speakership”. Belmonte, for his part, is saying that he has already clinched the cooperation of the NP, and Aquino himself declared earlier that the LP is open to forging an alliance with the group of his fiercest rival in the last presidential derby if only to derail Mrs. Arroyo’s campaign for Speakership.

Key role

With her chances remaining dim, Mrs. Arroyo is reportedly no longer interested to pursue the Speakership, a sentiment she supposedly expressed during the recent Lakas-Kampi-CMD caucus. An unidentified source from the Lakas-Kampi-CMD was even quoted in a newspaper column as saying that the party, as substitute for Arroyo, is ready to field veterans Reps. Edcel Lagman of Albay, Pablo Garcia of Cebu, Elpidio Barzaga of Cavite, and Deputy Speaker Simeon Datumanong as candidates for Speaker. Another party stalwart, Quezon Rep. Danilo Suarez was also mentioned as aspiring to pursue the Speakership. But of course, Arroyo also said that she will not run for President in 2004.

Following the line of succession in a presidential system, the Speaker of the House is the fourth highest position in the country. Ideally, consistent with the principle of check and balance, the House and its Speaker must be independent from the Executive branch. But realpolitik dictates that the President must have a party mate or at least a reliable political ally as Speaker of the House.

This will not only ensure the smooth implementation of his or her legislative agenda but can also greatly help in building a stable political environment for the administration. A House Speaker plays a central role in protecting or undermining the presidency as shown in the contrasting roles that former Speaker Villar played during Estrada’s impeachment and Jose De Venecia and Prospero Nograles in the four failed impeachment attempts versus Mrs. Arroyo. For Noynoy and the LP, this is a motivation that is probably even more compelling than derailing Arroyo’s Speakership plans in the name of justice and accountability.

In the coming days and weeks, the alignments and loyalties of elected lawmakers will continue to shift in favor of or against the new administration. As political concessions and deals are made, the Filipino people could only hope that their supposed representatives have the country’s best interests in mind.