The Philippine Online Chronicles

Nine out of ten Filipinos, according to a survey, reportedly say they are optimistic about the future. I don’t know how scientific that survey was conducted, but I sincerely doubt its veracity.

For one, and I know this as a veteran marketing researcher, Filipino respondents say something but meant something different. If you ask a Filipino if he is hopeful about the coming year, he will definitely say yes. But, if you ask him, if he really thinks, based on his daily experience, if there is really a brighter future that lie ahead of him, you’ll get a different answer. This explains why it is very important to frame the survey question in such a way that it reflects the ethos of Filipinos.

Anyway, President Benigno Aquino III in his Rizal day speech says that certain sectors are seeing the light really at the end of the tunnel. Things are getting brighter and better each day. I agree.

Filipino companies, especially those allied with the powers-that-be are benefitting from the renewed enthusiasm brought by this new administration. Telecommunications companies are making a killing every single day. Oil companies are also raking in huge profits to the satisfaction of their foreign principals. Food companies have also jacked their prices up, unmindful of the plight of the ordinary Filipino consumer.

Yes, more investors are coming in. Yes, more jobs probably to about 7 million still jobless Filipinos. And yes, more Filipinos are satisfied with improved government services.

The challenges, however, remain even in the economic sector. First off, inflation. Expect a higher rate of inflation this coming year due to the rise of commodity prices this month. Second, profits remain minimal and there is still a higher risk of investing in the Philippines due to the prevailing socio-political strife. Fact is, the  Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) even reported that many companies failed to give their 13th month pays to their workers, due, again to the non-recovery of certain industries and sectors still affected by the global economic recession.

Aquino says our situation now is different, but if you really look and analyze things, the situation remains the same. Elites still dominate our lives, and look at us as just a big 90 million consumer market ready to be fooled by cheap technologies and marketing promises.

We still have an underdeveloped agrarian sector. Thousands of hectares of agricultural lands remain in the hands of modern-day hacienderos close to the powers that be.

We still operate a humongous bureaucracy burdened by accusations of graft and corruption. Many government officials still rob us of our precious peso by dangling “developmental projects” that carve 25% out of the budget and into their pockets.

We are still desirous of getting justice from the previous dispensation. There are indications that this new administration is really not that serious in pursuing cases against the Arroyos simply out of respect from a big time businessman who contributed a huge cache of his money and even Arroyo’s stolen stash into the winning president’s campaign kitty.

Every single day, 5,000 Filipinos leave our shores. These Overseas Filipino Workers are still trying their luck abroad. What’s different is even middle class and upper middle class Filipinos, those belonging to the intelligentsia, are migrating to Canada and other Western countries. Most of them will allow themselves to be exploited by human smugglers, while some would probably get what they desired.

Fact is, the challenges that we so face in 2011 are more daunting than before. The new administration has not shown its competency in governance, and even committed major blunders that affect policies. The eventual entry of former Senator Mar Roxas would probably put some semblance of order but this would also impact on the relationship of other allied groups within the administration.

It is very likely that political challenges would increase by next year simply because Aquino is fast losing his political capital with his once-close allies. News spread fast on the worsening state of bickering within interest groups inside the palace. Makati Business Club Chairman Ramon del Rosario believes that these internal strife would reach crescendo shortly after May when the losing Liberal candidates assume government posts. The bureaucracy has not changed. It is still controlled by the past dispensation. This situation however, will change when Roxas and his battle-scarred compatriots in Hyatt 10 occupy the seats of power. They don’t have the mandate of the people, yet they ride on the crest of Aquino’s popularity.

Political challenges will dominate the news next year, with close Aquino allies slowly leaving the ship, with the captain holding the rudder clueless on how the ship of state runs. Without a clear power base, Aquino would continue being beholden by economic and corporate interests. He will slowly lose his popularity with the worsening economic situation. By allowing his economic and business allies to run amuck the economy, by favoring profits over the people, Aquino’s political base will be struck with so many challenges and internal wragglings to the point of exhaustion. It is entirely possible that a stronger, more expansive anti-Aquino movement will emerge from this.

How to avert such a situation? Aquino must continue his open communication with political and ideological groups. Civil society should continue its closer engagement with the administration. Aquino must allow well-meaning members of the civil society, the academe, and people’s organizations to remain engaged in policy-making. If Aquino loses his grasp of the grassroots situation and only believes in what his close in associates report to him, the President will slowly lose an objective assessment of reality and will, like his predecessors, be totally isolated, thinking that he is doing a nice job when the opposite is being experienced by the people.

The solution is simply run a coalition government, something, which previous administrations forgot. Since the overall philosophical platform is based on engagement, Aquino must concretize his pronouncements that every single Filipino is a stakeholder in the further improvement of the Filipino lot. There should be no compromise. Every group, every corporate individual who wants to have a greater role in policy making and nation rebuilding should be asked to get involved in a closer engagement with the government. If Aquino fails in this, and just allows one bloc to dominate the affairs of the state, then, expect a further diminution of Aquino’s powers and influence and the possible and eventual, ouster of Aquino from power. This is entirely possible, given that groups who are really desirous of real change, remains in the sidelines, waiting for the right opportunity to strike.

Patricio Mangubat is a pseudonym . It means "country fight". Yet, the one behind this name is real. He can be briefly described as a long-time activist as well as a communication strategist. He once taught at the University of the Philippines and at Dela Salle University. He blogs at The New Philippine Revolution. Aside from writing, he recently opened a roast chicken business, Manok King. He blogs at filipinovoices.com and New Philippine Revolution.

Photo by Anton Sheker. Some Rights Reserved