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Sep 02
Home News Local Aquino scolds PAGASA for erroneous forecasting

Aquino scolds PAGASA for erroneous forecasting

Typhoon Basyang (international code: Conson) battered Metro Manila, contrary to forecasts by PAGASA yesterday that the typhoon will make landfall in Eastern and Central Luzon.

The agency got a scolding from President Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III due to its erroneous forecasting.“Your information is sorely lacking. I hope this is the last time,” Aquino told the weather bureau during PAGASA’s briefing this morning.

PAGASA’s weather bulletins stated yesterday that Basyang will make landfall in Casiguran, Aurora but as of 11:00 p.m. last night, the typhoon hit Metro Manila and several provinces in Southern Luzon including Laguna and Cavite, at a recorded wind speed of 95 kilometers per hour. PAGASA issued a weather bulletin and raised typhoon signals but it was too late to warn the public.

The weather agency said it needs at least P1.8 million to upgrade its communications equipment for more accurate forecasting particularly the purchase of additional Doppler radars. PAGASA has two radars - one in Baler, Quezon and another in Baguio City. "But the Baler radar has a blind spot to the east because of the Sierra Madre mountains while the Baguio radar cannot cover Metro Manila. This means PAGASA is only making do with the information from these radars and from old radars," Inquirer.net reported.

As of 5:22 p.m. today, typhoon Basyang has left at least 20 people dead and more than 3,000 people stranded, Manila Bulletin online reported. Hundreds were left homeless in coastal areas. There were also flash floods and landslides in several towns in affected provinces.

According to the National Disaster and Coordinating Council, 57 people are still missing, mostly fishermen in the Bicol area.

 

Powerless, stranded

Basyang left most of the National Capital Region and some parts of Luzon powerless as the storm damaged transmission and distribution lines of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP). By 2:00 a.m., NGCP declared a Luzon-wide system blackout.

Most of Manila Electric Company’s (Meralco) franchise areas were affected including Metro Manila, Rizal, Quezon, Batangas, Cavite and Laguna. Based on its power situation report, NGCP said the "restoration of the Luzon power system is ongoing” and almost a hundred linemen have been deployed to immediately patrol and repair transmission facilities damaged by the typhoon.

But it might take a while before power supply returns to normal. “Restoring the damaged facilities would take about three to four days while power in Metro Manila is expected to normalize within one to two days.”  “We cannot fully restore the load of Metro Manila but we are trying our best,” an NGCP official said in a GMA News report.

Operation of the MRT and LRT was also shut down due to the power outage. Thousands of commuters were left stranded. Even if power were restored, LRTA head Melquiadas Robles said they will have to check the LRT lines for debris such as galvanized iron sheets, according to Yahoo News.

Domestic and international flights were also cancelled due to the bad weather condition. The Philippine Coast Guard meanwhile reported that 3,135 passengers were stranded at the North and South Harbor.

Based on PAGASA’s 5:00 p.m. weather bulletin today, Basyang is located at 180 kilometers west of Iba, Zambales. It has maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph. It is moving northweast at 19 kph, and is expected to pass 480 kilometers west of Laoag City by Thursday afternoon.



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nick tingog 16 July 10, 07:06 PM
The rumors are that President Noynoy will also start scolding Secretary Voltaire Gazmin every time there is a media- or human-rights killing.

deogracias caro 25 July 10, 08:41 PM
As of lunchtime July 13th, the Monterey site of the US Navy had already started modifying their typhoon path forecasts for Basyang. Initially they had forecast it to move in a more northerly direction but later on modified it to a very westerly path making it pass about 4 miles north of Manila with gustiness of about 80 knots.

I live in Las Pinas, south of Metro Manila and we experienced the passing of Basyang's eye around midnight. If PAGASA had seen and followed Monterey's forecasts, they could have avoided being scolded by PNOY. By the way, Monterey's forecasts of typhoon paths are generally right on the money.

One more thing, the DOPPLER radar to be installed in Tagaytay will surely help in forecasting the path of any typhoon approaching Metro Manila. And rather than installing those radars in the western part of the Philippines, PAGASA would to well to revive and install radar facilities in Daet and Mactan which had Raytheon WSR-57 radar systems before and both of which served PAGASA well. Monitoring of any typhoon approaching Metro Manila will be continuous with Virac radar first on the line; they transfer observing the typhoon to Daet and they finally to the one in Tagaytay. Reviving the installation of the radar in Busuanga, as there is already a radar building there waiting for the equipment, would serve the purpose of monitoring the rains associated with the southwest monsoon which can also be done with the Tagaytay and Subic radars. With this proposal, PAGASA will avoid installing equipment which might be idle most of the time, and revive the protection of Metro Manila from the so to speak "unannouced" arrival of typhoons in Manila.
Philippine Typhoon Center 26 July 10, 01:35 AM
noPAGASA's location of Doppler radars was a mere mistake; why do they put those things on the mountain sides (and not on the mountaintops) where radar beams cannot penetrate? The noPAGASA people are mere morons. I also constantly watched Basyang's move as it strikes Manila, and when it seemed to move constantly westward over the hours I now conclude that the storm will certainly hit the Metro. The noPAGASA people didn't thought of this ? There is an amateur meteorologist named Michael Padua who also thought of Basyang hitting Manila (as we are both guided by JTWC forecast) and Prisco Nilo must be replaced by him as soon as possible.

PAGASA has WSR-57 radars eh? but dormant? Well those type of radars served Miami and the US National Hurricane Center during Hurricane Andrew before being destroyed. But these WSR57 is still out of service. What's more, the RADAR images (if existing) are private and was not being shown over the web -- what's this? Are the radar images for PAGASA use only? Other countries are more transparent on giving radar images; the US even has live radar images showing on live TV and the images changes in every radar sweep.

The government, on the other hand, is KURIPOT in comes to weather budget. Gloria Mishil slashed PAGASA's budget to half. The result? Ondoy and Pepeng, and now PNoy is inheriting the effects of her evil deeds. Wish the PNoy government is more generous on giving PAGASA more budget, and thus, more hope.

And may PNoy consider replacing Prisco Nilo as head of PAGASA.
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